Voter Fraud

Something circulating around a lot is voter fraud (AKA election fraud), fanned especially by the president. I had heard that voter fraud is incredibly rare (first on this Constitution episode of the podcast Ologies!), but I hadn’t looked into it much - until now!

Voter fraud happens primarily through mail-in/absentee voting, and is almost non-existent at the polls. Nevertheless, voter fraud in general is very rare. Voter fraud incidents are between 0.0003 and 0.0025 percent of all votes, and according to the Brennan Center (“an independent, nonpartisan law and policy organization that works to reform, revitalize, and when necessary, defend our country’s systems of democracy and justice”), it is “more likely that an American will be struck by lightning than he will impersonate another voter at the polls” (According to National Geographic, in a year the odds of an American being struck by lightning in a lifetime is 1 in 3000 and in any one year or 0.0003 percent). Most incidents of fraud are traceable to other sources than impersonation, like clerical errors or bad data matching practices. There have been a myriad of studies on voter fraud, many compiled and summarized on the Brennan Center’s website. Although you can look into each one in this web page, here is a summary of some of them:

• A 2014 study by the Washington Post found 31 credible cases of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014 out of more than 1 billion votes cast. Even this number is probably inflated, the study’s author counted not only prosecutions or convictions but all credible claims.

• 2 studies by Arizona State university (one in 2012 and one in 2016) found 10 cases of voter impersonation nationwide from 2000 to 2012. The 2016 study looked specifically at states where politicians argue that fraud was problematic (Arizona, Ohio, Georgia, Texas, and Kansas) and found 0 successful prosecutions for impersonation fraud in those states from 2012 to 2016.

• A review of 2016 election found 4 documented cases of voter fraud.

• A 2016 working paper found upper limit on double voting in 2012 election had an upper limit of 0.02%, but the incident rate was probably much lower.

• A 2014 paper found that likely 0% of non-citizen voters in recent US elections

• A 2012 study found only 10 cases of impersonation fraud at the polls alleged over12 years across the entire country.

So overall, the number is very low.

Another issue that has been brought up recently has been ballot harvesting. Ballot harvesting refers to the concept of a 3rd party collecting ballots from people to turn in. Although a system like this can take down barriers to turning in votes, it also can be problematic in that these 3rd parties can have agendas and influence voting. Some people worry about folks tampering with ballots in ballot harvesting, and in some states it’s against the law (in WA state, only the person registered to vote or a family member may turn in their ballot). While there are some cases of fraud through ballot harvesting (you can read about it here) they seem relatively isolated. The website also provided some suggestions for states to prevent negative effects of ballot harvesting, like ballot drop boxes and educating voters. I think other systemic procedures that make voting easier for voters other than ballot harvesting will make things easier and more secure for voters.

There are preventative measures that states can take to prevent voter fraud in the first place that also don't disenfranchise or suppress voters. These include:

• Voter maintenance list - Maintaining an accurate list of active voters helps prevent fraud It ensures that eligible voters are able to cast a ballot, keeps track of who has voted to prevent anyone from voting twice and, by reducing inaccuracies, speeds up the voter check-in process at polling places

• Signature requirements - All 50 states require a valid signature for ballot to be valid. It’s a nice way to “strike a balance between security, transparency, and accessibility for voter” and a good system should also include a process to fix signature mismatches (some states do not allow signatures to be fixed if they do not match)

• Witness requirements - Some states require a witness for absentee voting, and some of those states require the witness to be a notary.

• Ballot collection laws - These laws vary by state, but determine who can drop off a ballot. For some states it is only the person who has voted, in some states a family member may drop off the ballot, and in some states the voter may choose someone else who can drop off their ballot.

• Voter identification laws - This involves voters providing some form of ID - often this is a picture ID.

There are some bigger cases of fraud that you might hear on the news, although these cases are isolated (not part of a bigger scheme or connected to each other). While some of the ones mentioned in the article are individuals discarding votes, many of the cases are mistakes on the part of the election offices that were addressed with a solution implemented. In these cases, it sounds like most, if not all, were rectified (like the people being able to recast their votes if they were thrown away or election offices providing all new ballots if they mess up things like addresses or information on the ballot).

Are there cases of fraud happening that are slipping beneath the cracks? Probably, but likely not enough to really have any significance. So basically, harping on voter fraud is a fearmongering technique to delegitimize the election process. In reading, it also seems like a lot of fear generated around voter fraud is a tactic of voter suppression, the next topic I intend to research. It seems like the most important things that the average citizen can do are to be aware of your state’s voting policies, educate others about them, or influence to change them if there are changes that can make voting more secure (like voting for whatever official in your state is in charge of that who will make the system the best it can be). I really do think a lot of making voting even more secure comes down to awareness. It’s different for every state, and understanding how your ballot is processed (and even how to fill out your ballot correctly) can ensure that making sure your voice is heard is in your own hands. It also allows you to know what about the system your state uses can be modified, so you can make choices about who you vote for to maintain/improve the system or how you will bug those people about changes you want to be made. Knowing the stats about voter fraud can also help you have informed conversations with others about it.